University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion
32 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4 | 1.4 pts | D+0.1 | 100% |
| 2020 | 17 | 4.4 pts | D+4.3 | 87% |
| 2018 | 2 | 3.2 pts | R+2.3 | 100% |
| 2016 | 6 | 1.7 pts | D+0.6 | 80% |
| 2014 | 3 | 1.1 pts | R+1.1 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-23 | GA Senate | D+5.0 | D+2.8 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-22 | MA Governor | D+27.0 | D+29.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-20 | NH Governor | R+16.0 | R+15.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-20 | NH Senate | D+10.0 | D+9.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-23 | NC Governor | D+12.0 | D+4.5 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-23 | TX Senate | R+5.0 | R+9.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-23 | NC Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.8 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-23 | TX President | R+1.0 | R+5.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-23 | NC President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2020-10-21 | NH Governor | R+23.0 | R+31.8 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-21 | NH Senate | D+19.0 | D+15.7 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-21 | NH President | D+10.0 | D+7.4 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-09 | National President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-22 | NC Governor | D+13.0 | D+4.5 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-22 | TX Senate | R+10.0 | R+9.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-22 | NC Senate | D+6.0 | R+1.8 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-22 | TX President | R+3.0 | R+5.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-22 | NC President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2020-09-21 | NH Governor | R+26.0 | R+31.8 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-21 | NH Senate | D+19.0 | D+15.7 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-21 | NH President | D+8.0 | D+7.4 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-04 | MA Governor | R+39.0 | R+33.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-04 | MA Senate | D+25.0 | D+24.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-30 | NH President | Even | D+0.4 | 0.4 | — |
| 2016-10-30 | NH Senate | D+1.0 | D+0.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-30 | NH Governor | R+4.0 | R+2.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-09 | NH President | D+6.0 | D+0.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-09 | NH Senate | R+1.0 | D+0.1 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-09 | NH Governor | R+2.0 | R+2.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-23 | MA Governor | R+4.0 | R+1.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | NH Governor | D+4.0 | D+5.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | NH Senate | D+3.0 | D+3.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.