University of Delaware Center for Political Communication
12 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 4.5 pts | D+4.5 | 100% |
| 2020 | 4 | 5.8 pts | D+5.8 | 100% |
| 2018 | 2 | 8.0 pts | D+8.0 | 100% |
| 2016 | 3 | 9.3 pts | D+9.3 | 100% |
| 2014 | 2 | 11.5 pts | D+11.5 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-22 | DE-1 House | D+17.0 | D+12.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-24 | DE-1 House | D+22.0 | D+17.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-24 | DE Governor | D+29.0 | D+20.8 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-24 | DE Senate | D+30.0 | D+21.5 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-24 | DE President | D+21.0 | D+19.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-14 | DE-1 House | D+30.0 | D+28.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-14 | DE Senate | D+37.0 | D+22.1 | 14.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-22 | DE-1 House | D+20.0 | D+14.6 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-22 | DE President | D+21.0 | D+11.4 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-22 | DE Governor | D+32.0 | D+19.2 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-16 | DE-1 House | D+34.0 | D+22.5 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-16 | DE Senate | D+25.0 | D+13.6 | 11.4 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.