Pew Research Center
10 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 3.6 pts | D+3.6 | 0% |
| 2020 | 2 | 4.3 pts | D+4.3 | 100% |
| 2018 | 2 | 1.0 pts | D+1.0 | 100% |
| 2016 | 3 | 4.6 pts | D+4.6 | 67% |
| 2014 | 2 | 4.6 pts | D+4.6 | 50% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-13 | National Generic Ballot | D+1.0 | R+2.6 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-02 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-02 | National President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-30 | National Generic Ballot | D+9.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-21 | National Generic Ballot | D+10.0 | D+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-22 | National President | D+6.0 | D+2.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-03 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.0 | R+1.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-03 | National President | D+7.0 | D+2.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-17 | National Generic Ballot | D+1.0 | R+5.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-06 | National Generic Ballot | R+3.0 | R+5.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.