ABC News/The Washington Post
30 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 1.5 pts | R+0.9 | 100% |
| 2020 | 15 | 4.9 pts | D+4.4 | 80% |
| 2018 | 2 | 2.0 pts | D+1.5 | 100% |
| 2016 | 8 | 2.0 pts | D+1.6 | 75% |
| 2014 | 3 | 1.5 pts | D+0.3 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-01 | National Generic Ballot | R+2.0 | R+2.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-20 | National Generic Ballot | R+5.0 | R+2.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | PA President | D+7.0 | D+1.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | FL President | R+2.0 | R+3.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-22 | MI Senate | D+6.0 | D+1.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-22 | WI President | D+17.0 | D+0.6 | 16.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-22 | MI President | D+7.0 | D+2.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | NC Senate | D+2.0 | R+1.8 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-14 | NC President | D+1.0 | R+1.4 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-08 | National President | D+12.0 | D+4.4 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-23 | PA President | D+9.0 | D+1.2 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-23 | National President | D+6.0 | D+4.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-17 | AZ Senate | D+1.0 | D+2.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-17 | FL President | R+4.0 | R+3.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-17 | AZ President | R+1.0 | D+0.3 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-10 | WI President | D+6.0 | D+0.6 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-10 | MN President | D+16.0 | D+7.1 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-31 | National Generic Ballot | D+8.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-10 | National Generic Ballot | D+12.0 | D+8.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | National President | D+4.0 | D+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | National President | D+3.0 | D+2.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-28 | National President | D+1.0 | D+2.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-24 | National President | D+6.0 | D+2.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-23 | National Generic Ballot | D+1.0 | R+1.0 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-12 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+1.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-12 | National President | D+4.0 | D+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-21 | National President | D+2.0 | D+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-25 | National Generic Ballot | R+6.0 | R+5.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-11 | National Generic Ballot | R+7.0 | R+5.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-06 | National Generic Ballot | R+3.0 | R+5.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.