Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vasquez ✓ | 47,123 | 100.0% |
Republican Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Cunningham ✓ | 26,836 | 84.5% | |
| Jose Orozco | 4,909 | 15.5% |
Full calendar and every race: New Mexico primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling | 2026-10-09 | 383 LV | ±5.00 | Gabe Vasquez 48.00% | Greg Cunningham 44.00% |
| SurveyUSA | 2026-09-04 | 554 LV | Gabe Vasquez 46.00% | Greg Cunningham 43.00% | |
| co/efficient (R) partisan·R | 2026-04-28 | 879 LV | ±3.30 | Gabe Vasquez 43.00% | Greg Cunningham 41.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 NM-02 House race?
Gabe Vasquez leads Greg Cunningham 45.7% to 42.7% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+3.0 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 NM-02 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean D, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 NM-02 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Research & Polling (completed October 9, 2026), found Gabe Vasquez (D) at 48% and Greg Cunningham (R) at 44%.
When is the 2026 NM-02 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 2 hours ago
Top Spenders
- READY FOR THE FIGHT Dem-aligned $1,529,505
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $1,319,354
- CHC BOLD PAC Dem-aligned $785,938
- HMP Dem-aligned $250,000
- BOLD AMERICA Dem-aligned $225,864
- CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. GOP-aligned $197,975
- WILDERNESS ACTION, INC. Dem-aligned $130,320
- RETIRED AMERICANS ACTION Dem-aligned $65,709
- COMMON GROUND COALITION PAC Dem-aligned $59,547
- BLUE CD2 NEW MEXICO USA Dem-aligned $51,798
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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