The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement
5 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 0.4 pts | R+0.4 | 100% |
| 2018 | 1 | 8.2 pts | R+8.2 | 100% |
| 2016 | 2 | 6.7 pts | D+6.7 | 100% |
| 2014 | 1 | 12.8 pts | D+12.8 | 0% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-24 | MD Governor | D+32.0 | D+32.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-06 | MD Governor | R+20.0 | R+11.9 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-29 | MD President | D+36.0 | D+26.4 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-29 | MD Senate | D+29.0 | D+25.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-04 | MD Governor | D+9.0 | R+3.8 | 12.8 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.