Primary
Primary election: Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Full calendar and every race: Washington primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-05-25 | 578 LV | ±5.60 | Bajun Mavalwalla 46.00% | Michael Baumgartner 54.00% |
| Tavern Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-05-25 | 578 LV | ±5.60 | Dem % | Michael Baumgartner 47.00% |
| Tavern Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-05-25 | 578 LV | ±5.60 | David Womack 46.00% | Michael Baumgartner 54.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 WA-05 House race?
Michael Baumgartner leads Bajun Mavalwalla 54% to 46% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+8.0 margin based on 2 polls from the last 90 days.
Is the 2026 WA-05 House race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely R, meaning Republicans are clearly favored but an upset is not impossible.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 WA-05 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Tavern Research (D) (completed May 25, 2026), found Bajun Mavalwalla (D) at 46% and Michael Baumgartner (R) at 54%.
When is the 2026 WA-05 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Replaced Cathy McMorris Rodgers who retired
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.