Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raymond Smith Jr. ✓ | 23,552 | 56.7% | |
| Allison Jaslow | 18,020 | 43.3% |
Republican Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Murphy ✓ | — | — |
Full calendar and every race: North Carolina primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Greg Murphy Nominee Incumbent
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-08-02 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Raymond Smith Jr. 41.00% | Greg Murphy 44.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 NC-03 House race?
Greg Murphy leads Raymond Smith Jr. 44% to 41% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+3.0 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 NC-03 House race competitive?
No — the expert consensus rates it Safe R for Republicans.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 NC-03 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Tulchin Research (D) (completed August 2, 2026), found Raymond Smith Jr. (D) at 41% and Greg Murphy (R) at 44%.
When is the 2026 NC-03 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $348,065
- CENTER FORWARD INITIATIVE INC (CFI) GOP-aligned $131,108
- ADVANCE NORTH CAROLINA Dem-aligned $6,642
- RED WINE AND BLUE Dem-aligned $126
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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