Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research
13 scored general-election polls (2014–2021) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2 | 5.9 pts | D+5.9 | 0% |
| 2020 | 2 | 2.4 pts | D+2.4 | 100% |
| 2017 | 3 | 5.6 pts | R+5.6 | 100% |
| 2016 | 4 | 4.9 pts | D+4.9 | 100% |
| 2014 | 2 | 13.7 pts | D+13.7 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-21 | VA Governor | D+1.0 | R+1.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2021-09-19 | VA Governor | D+7.0 | R+1.9 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-26 | VA Senate | D+16.0 | D+12.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | VA President | D+11.0 | D+10.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-31 | VA Governor | Even | D+8.9 | 8.9 | — |
| 2017-10-10 | VA Governor | D+6.0 | D+8.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-09-20 | VA Governor | D+4.0 | D+8.9 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-31 | VA President | D+7.0 | D+5.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-27 | VA President | D+18.0 | D+5.3 | 12.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-04 | VA President | D+9.0 | D+5.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-15 | VA President | D+7.0 | D+5.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-22 | VA Senate | D+10.0 | D+0.8 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-16 | VA Senate | D+19.0 | D+0.8 | 18.2 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.