Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 23, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonny Larsen ✓ | — | — |
Full calendar and every race: Utah primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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General Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthouse Research | 2026-09-17 | 513 LV | ±4.32 | Jonny Larsen 33.00% | Mike Kennedy 42.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 UT-04 House race?
Mike Kennedy leads Jonny Larsen 42% to 33% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+9.0 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 UT-04 House race competitive?
No — the expert consensus rates it Safe R for Republicans.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 UT-04 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Lighthouse Research (completed September 17, 2026), found Jonny Larsen (D) at 33% and Mike Kennedy (R) at 42%.
When is the 2026 UT-04 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Redistricting drew two incumbents here: Burgess Owens (retired, announced March 2026) and Mike Kennedy (elected in the old UT-3), who is running. Both parties nominated by convention - no June 23 ballot primary.
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.
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