Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leticia Gutierrez ✓ | 18,630 | 53.7% | |
| Earnest Clayton | 5,640 | 16.3% | |
| Terry Virts | 5,044 | 14.6% | |
| Todd Ivey | 2,440 | 7.0% | |
| Marty Rocha | 2,367 | 6.8% | |
| Peter Filler | 552 | 1.6% |
Republican Runoff
Held May 26, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Mealer ✓ | 15,597 | 68.3% | |
| Briscoe Cain | 7,245 | 31.7% |
Full calendar and every race: Texas primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
Share
Race page
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston | 2026-10-07 | 677 LV | ±3.80 | Gutierrez 42.00% | Mealer 48.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 TX-09 House race?
Alex Mealer leads Leticia Gutierrez 48% to 42% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+6.0 margin based on 1 poll, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 TX-09 House race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely R, the current rating band. An upset is not impossible.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 TX-09 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from University of Houston (completed October 7, 2026), found Gutierrez (D) at 42% and Mealer (R) at 48%.
When is the 2026 TX-09 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 3 hours ago
Top Spenders
- CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION GOP-aligned $977,802
- WIN IT BACK PAC Mixed $886,914
- VETERANS DUTY FUND GOP-aligned $749,780
- DEFENDING OUR VALUES PAC GOP-aligned $647,655
- AMERICAN LIBERTY FOUNDATION GOP-aligned $406,698
- DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS GOP-aligned $401,841
- PATRIOTIC FUND, INC. GOP-aligned $278,365
- WFW ACTION FUND INC GOP-aligned $271,836
- BUILDING A STRONG AMERICA Dem-aligned $264,811
- CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC. GOP-aligned $245,026
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.
Get the daily email and the spending series
We store the address and the time you agree. No email is sent yet.