Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Soto ✓ | — | — |
Republican Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Green ✓ | 14,740 | 25.4% | |
| Ben Butler | 14,151 | 24.4% | |
| Thomas E. Chalifoux Jr. | 11,799 | 20.3% | |
| Jorge Martinez | 11,318 | 19.5% | |
| Justin Story | 2,481 | 4.3% | |
| Marcus Carter | 2,246 | 3.9% | |
| Steve Rance | 1,333 | 2.3% |
Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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General Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA Polling (D) D-sponsored | 2026-08-30 | 400 RV | ±4.90 | Darren Soto 41.00% | Dan Green 41.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 FL-09 House race?
Darren Soto (D) and Dan Green (R) are tied at 41% in the PollingSource polling average, based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 FL-09 House race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the expert consensus rates it Likely R, the current rating band. An upset is not impossible.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 FL-09 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from SEA Polling (D) (completed August 30, 2026), found Darren Soto (D) at 41% and Dan Green (R) at 41%.
When is the 2026 FL-09 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 31 min ago
Top Spenders
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $326,208
- CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. GOP-aligned $259,349
- CHC BOLD PAC Dem-aligned $248,204
- PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT Dem-aligned $211,866
- HOMEGROWN CONSERVATIVES PAC GOP-aligned $72,466
- HOMETOWN FREEDOM ACTION NETWORK Dem-aligned $47,000
- NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE Dem-aligned $45,918
- WINNING RIGHT PAC Dem-aligned $42,424
- REFORM GOVERNMENT Dem-aligned $32,470
- MAGA INC. GOP-aligned $31,061
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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