Oklahoma Governor Race

2026 Election • Open Seat (Term Limited)
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Primary

Democratic Primary

Held June 16, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Cyndi Munson ✓ 137,225 74.6%
Connie Johnson 41,771 22.7%
Constance Johnson 38,414 22.3%
Arya 5,055 2.8%
Arya Azma 4,824 2.8%

Republican Runoff

Held August 25, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Mike Mazzei ✓ 186,734 50.3%
Gentner Drummond 184,681 49.7%

Full calendar and every race: Oklahoma primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Kevin Stitt)
Party
Republican
Open Seat
Yes
Current Rating
Lean R our polls experts: Likely R
Term Limited
Yes
Polls
3 polls

PollingSource Rating

Lean R
Our polling average R+5.7 · 3 polls

Toss-up = under 3 pts · Lean = 3–6 · Likely = 6–10 · Safe = 10+ (our poll average). "D+12.6" = Democrat ahead by 12.6 points. Tilt = a slight edge, used for expert averages and some House ratings.

General Election Polling Trend

Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.

The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.

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Expert Ratings

Cook Political Report

Likely R

Inside Elections

Likely Republican

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely Republican

Candidates

Cyndi Munson

Cyndi Munson Nominee

Democrat
Mike Mazzei

Mike Mazzei Nominee

Republican

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
39.0%
Republican
44.7%
Margin
R+5.7
Latest poll in average
Oct 13, 2026

LV = likely voters · RV = registered voters · ± = margin of error · R-sponsored / D-sponsored / I-sponsored = paid for by a Republican, Democratic, or Independent group · "missed 2024 by X pts" = that firm's average miss in 2024

Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →

Pollster Date Sample MoE Dem Rep
Workbench Strategy (D) D-sponsored In average 2026-10-13 this poll 600 LV ±4.00 Cyndi Munson 45.00% Mike Mazzei 49.00%
Cross Timbers Poll In average 2026-10-12 this poll LV ±15.00 Cyndi Munson 36.00% Mike Mazzei 39.00%
Cross Timbers Poll In average 2026-09-30 this poll LV ±12.00 Cyndi Munson 36.00% Mike Mazzei 46.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 Oklahoma governor's race?

Mike Mazzei leads Cyndi Munson 44.7% to 39% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+5.7 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.

Is the 2026 Oklahoma governor's race competitive?

Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean R, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 Oklahoma governor's race say?

The most recent poll in our average, from Workbench Strategy (D) (completed October 13, 2026), found Cyndi Munson (D) at 45% and Mike Mazzei (R) at 49%.

When is the 2026 Oklahoma governor's race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race Notes

Term-limited, open seat

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