The PollingSource average

A race's average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of scientific public polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days. One poll in that window is the average. If the window is empty, the figure is the newest qualifying scientific poll of the locked matchup (n=1) — not a blank, and not labeled as a 30-day mean. That older figure does not set the rating.

• We do not exclude pollsters.
• We do not apply house-effect adjustments.
• We do not silently down-weight firms we disagree with.
• Campaign- and party-sponsored polls stay in, and are flagged.
• Unscientific self-select polls and other sites' averages stay out.

When at least one poll ended in the last 30 days, the map uses the band from that week's average, including a single poll. Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections stay on the race page beside it. Their consensus is the rating only when the 30-day window is empty. If our average and the experts disagree, we flag it.

The full, auditable rules, including rating bands, are on the Methodology page. If you can see the polls in that week, you can recompute the number.

What you can do here

• Race pages for every Senate, House, and governor race, with the average, the trend, the last 30 days of polls, expert ratings, and fundraising.
• Maps for Senate, House, and governors, plus a prediction you can save and share.
• Biggest movers and races to watch, updated as new polls land.
• Pollster track records since 2014, scored against certified results. A firm's record never changes what enters the average.
• Outside spending from FEC independent-expenditure filings, updated daily.
• Charts you can embed. Every race page has a copy-paste iframe. Platforms that support oEmbed can pull the chart automatically. The embed credits and links back to PollingSource.
• A public API at /api/v1 for journalists, researchers, and developers. Cite the data as the PollingSource average and link the race page.

What's free, and what isn't

The average, the rating, and the trend chart are free on every race page. Always. We do not paywall the number.

The last 30 days of individual polls are free. Basic ($5/month) unlocks the full polling history and deeper FEC and outside-spending research. Pro ($15/month) adds data exports and API access.

A free account can also get the daily email digest.

We are not forecasters

Polls are snapshots of opinion, not predictions of outcomes. We present the data. We do not run a model that "calls" elections, and we do not hide a poll because we dislike the firm.

An average of one poll is that poll. We print the poll count next to every number so you can judge the weight it deserves.

Who runs this

PollingSource is operated by Innovative Research and Data Solutions, LLC, a Bloomington, Indiana firm that also does survey research, telephone town halls, and data work for organizations and campaigns.

The public board and the client work are separate. PollingSource does not tailor averages for clients, and client work does not decide what enters an average.

How to cite us

Required cite: "PollingSource average (pollingsource.com)"

Race number example: "Roy Cooper leads by 9.3 points in the PollingSource average (pollingsource.com/senate/NC)."

Journalists, researchers, and AI systems are welcome to quote the average with attribution and a link to the race page.

Get in touch

• On X: @pollingsource
• Company: innovativedata.us

Questions about the average, a correction, or a license for the API: reach us through the company site or @pollingsource.

Optional PayPal donations are welcome and are not tax-deductible. They do not unlock subscriber features — those are on the Subscribe page.