Texas voters decided multiple federal and state races on May 26, with Republican Ken Paxton (R TX-SEN) defeating fellow Republican John Cornyn (R TX-SEN) in the Senate runoff with 62.82% of the vote to secure the GOP nomination. The runoff result sets up a general election matchup between Paxton and the Democratic nominee—determined through overlapping primary contests—in a race rated Solid R or Safe R by multiple forecasters.
Texas: Paxton Wins Senate Runoff; House Runoffs Conclude
Ken Paxton (R TX-SEN) won the Republican Senate runoff decisively, capturing 455,582 votes (62.82%) against John Cornyn (R TX-SEN), who received 269,685 votes (37.18%). The 25-point margin establishes Paxton as the Republican nominee to replace retiring Senator John Cornyn in the general election. Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the seat Solid R or Safe R, indicating the Republican nominee enters the general election with a structural advantage in the state.
The Democratic side produced a contested outcome in Texas's 33rd District, where Colin Allred (D TX-33) defeated incumbent Julie Johnson (D TX-33) in the primary runoff with 7,294 votes (54.93%) to Johnson's 5,985 votes (45.07%). Allred's victory came despite trailing in cash on hand; he retained only 11,951 dollars compared to Talarico's 9.9 million dollars in reserves. The outcome signals Allred will seek the Democratic Senate nomination in a separate process, creating overlapping contests that remain unresolved pending results announcement.
House runoffs produced five Republican victories and two Democratic wins across contested races. Jon Bonck (R TX-38) won his runoff decisively with 21,441 votes (65.36%) against Shelly deZevallos (R TX-38), who received 11,364 votes (34.64%). Tom Sell (R TX-19) prevailed with 17,128 votes (64.81%) over Abraham Enriquez (R TX-19), who captured 9,301 votes (35.19%). Alexander Hale (R TX-07) won with 7,110 votes (63.80%) to Tina Cohen's (R TX-07) 4,034 votes (36.20%), while Alex Mealer (R TX-09) secured 7,378 votes (69.02%) against Briscoe Cain (R TX-09), who received 3,311 votes (30.98%). Everett Jackson (R TX-30) won with 3,257 votes (57.39%) over Sholdon Daniels (R TX-30), who garnered 2,418 votes (42.61%).
Christian D. Menefee (D TX-18) and Kevin Burge (D TX-24) won on the Democratic side. Menefee secured 16,757 votes (70.42%) against Al Green (D TX-18), who received 7,039 votes (29.58%). Burge dominated his runoff with 7,248 votes (79.74%) to TJ Ware's (D TX-24) 1,842 votes (20.26%). The Texas's 33rd District race produced a three-way outcome with Colin Allred receiving 7,294 votes (54.93%), Patrick David Gillespie (R TX-33) capturing 3,003 votes (56.16%), and John Sims (R TX-33) receiving 2,344 votes (43.84%), indicating the race included both primary and general election voting simultaneously.
Runoff contests in Texas's 16th District and Texas's 37th District show no vote totals reported, suggesting those races either have not concluded or results remain pending. The absence of reporting prevents analysis of those outcomes. Financial data indicates substantial disparities among Senate candidates. James Talarico (D TX-SEN) raised 40.3 million dollars in total receipts and retained 9.9 million dollars in cash on hand, establishing a commanding financial advantage over his Democratic rivals. Colin Allred (D TX-SEN) raised 7.6 million dollars but holds only 11,951 dollars remaining, while Jasmine Crockett (D TX-SEN) raised 11.1 million dollars and retained 633,086 dollars. On the Republican side, Ken Paxton (R TX-SEN) raised 7.6 million dollars with 2.3 million dollars remaining, and John Cornyn (R TX-SEN) raised 7.9 million dollars with 4.1 million dollars in cash reserves.
Paxton's runoff victory positions him for the general election against one of three Democratic Senate candidates competing in a de facto primary process. The structural Republican advantage in the state, combined with Talarico's substantial financial resources, establishes the parameters for the fall campaign. Reporting indicating Steve Bannon's prediction that Paxton beating a Democratic opponent will prove "very tough" suggests some Republican operatives view the matchup as competitive despite the state's rightward lean. The compressed timeline between primary
Full Results Analysis
Full Texas analysis →Polls
Generic Ballot: Democratic Lead Widens Across Most Surveys
Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats maintaining a consistent advantage heading into the midterm cycle, though the margin varies substantially by pollster. Most surveys cluster Democrats between 46–51 percent against Republicans at 39–43 percent, representing leads of 5–11 percentage points. Emerson, Quinnipiac, Echelon Insights, and Data for Progress all register Democratic support at 50–51 percent, while the Economist/YouGov and Morning Consult surveys show slightly lower but still substantial 46–47 percent levels.
The outlier is Reuters/Ipsos, which reports near parity at 39–38 percent—a significant departure from the consensus. This poll's notably lower topline numbers for both parties suggest measurement differences rather than fundamental disagreement about direction. The consistency of Democratic leads across most major pollsters indicates structural strength in generic sentiment, though the range between Emerson's 9-point margin and Reuters/Ipsos's 1-point result underscores persistent polling variation that could mask meaningful uncertainty in individual district dynamics.
Follow the Money
New Hampshire House Race: Democratic Financial Dominance
Democratic candidates hold a commanding cash advantage across New Hampshire's competitive House races. Chris Pappas (D NH-01) leads all candidates with 3.2 million in cash on hand, having raised 6.6 million total. Maggie Goodlander (D NH-02) maintains 2.0 million in reserves from 3.0 million raised, while Maura Sullivan (D NH-03) holds 1.5 million from 2.6 million total receipts.
Republican candidates face a significant financial disparity. Anthony DiLorenzo (R NH-02), the leading GOP fundraiser, has only 827,267 dollars on hand from 1.3 million raised—less than one-quarter of Goodlander's cash reserves. Lily Williams (R NH-01) retains 574,000 dollars, widening the resource gap against Pappas.
The cash imbalance suggests Democrats possess substantially greater capacity for late-cycle advertising and ground operations across all three competitive districts. Republicans will face resource constraints in matching Democratic spending intensity during the final campaign stretch.
Headlines
- Bannon says Paxton beating Talarico in Texas will be ‘very tough’ (The Hill)
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Carlos De La Cruz won the Republican primary runoff for Texas' 35th Congressional District on May 26, 2026, defeating...
What to Watch
June 2 Primary Elections Across Seven States
Seven states will hold primaries on June 2, 2026, with competitive races for Senate, House, and gubernatorial offices. Alabama, California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota will winnow their candidate fields. Results from these contests will clarify which nominees face general election matchups in competitive districts and statewide races later in the cycle.
House Races Requiring Close Monitoring
Multiple House districts rated as tossups or leans warrant attention through 2026. CA-13 and CA-22 are rated tossups by the Cook Political Report, while CA-45 and CA-47 lean Republican. AZ-01 and AZ-06 are also tossups. CO-08 leans Republican, and IA-01 is likely Republican. Track candidate announcements, fundraising totals, and early polling in these districts for signals about potential shifts in the House map.
Senate Races and Competitive Dynamics
The Georgia Senate race leans Democratic according to Cook Political Report, while Florida's Senate race is rated likely Republican by Sabato's Crystal Ball. Monitor candidate filing deadlines, primary challenge dynamics, and any shifts in these ratings as campaigns develop.
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