Today's Source

Thursday, April 9, 2026

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A new national generic ballot poll shows Democrats leading Republicans 49 percent to 44 percent among registered voters, a 5-point advantage. The survey of 2,000 respondents conducted by RMG Research reflects the current state of play roughly 30 months before the 2028 presidential election.

Wisconsin Ballot Drop Box Case Concluded

A special prosecutor in Wisconsin announced that Doug Diny (R WI-GOV), mayor of Wausau, will not face charges for removing an absentee ballot drop box from city hall in September 2024. Diny maintained his removal of the city's only drop box was appropriate, and the decision closes the legal proceeding without filing criminal charges.

Virginia Governor Spanberger Faces Early Headwinds

Republican strategist Karl Rove characterized Abigail Spanberger's (D VA-GOV) early tenure as governor a "bad start," citing her declining polling numbers. The assessment stands in contrast to Spanberger's 58-42 victory margin in the November 2025 general election, suggesting a deterioration in her political position since taking office.

Maine Court Blocks Ranked-Choice Voting Expansion

Maine's Supreme Judicial Court ruled April 6 that legislation expanding ranked-choice voting to statewide general elections for governor and state legislature violates the state constitution. The decision prevents expansion of the voting method despite its existing use in congressional, presidential, and select primary elections in Maine.

Watch tomorrow for updated head-to-head matchup polling as the 2028 cycle gains definition, and developments in state-level governance issues that may affect approval ratings in key swing states.

Polls

National Generic
RMG Research** (n=2000 RV)
Democrats 49.00% · Republicans 44.00%

Follow the Money

Colorado House Race: Democratic Financial Advantage

Eileen Laubacher (D CO-##) maintains the largest cash reserves at 3.09 million, despite a Lean R rating. She has raised 8.58 million total and spent 5.49 million to date, leaving her well-positioned for final campaign push. Timothy Evans (R CO-##), the Republican candidate, holds 3.42 million on hand but has raised only 4.26 million total with minimal spending of 915k.

The financial gap favors Democrats across the field. Combined, Democratic candidates hold 10.3 million in cash reserves versus 6.36 million for Republicans. Manny Rutinel (D CO-##) and Jeffrey Hurd (R CO-##) rank second in their respective parties at 1.77 million and 1.94 million respectively.

Evans' low disbursement rate—only 21 percent of receipts spent—suggests either recent fundraising or limited campaign activity, creating uncertainty about resource allocation intensity heading into Election Day.

Headlines

What to Watch

Arizona House Races: AZ-01 and AZ-06

Both Arizona's 1st District and Arizona's 6th District remain toss-ups according to Cook Political Report, making them prime indicators of competitive House dynamics in a state that has shifted unpredictably in recent cycles. Monitor polling movement in these districts closely, as Arizona's suburban and exurban voters have demonstrated volatility in candidate preference and turnout patterns.

California's Swing Districts: CA-13, CA-22, CA-45, and CA-47

Four California House districts warrant attention. CA-13 and CA-22 are rated toss-ups by Cook Political Report, while CA-45 leans Republican according to Inside Elections and CA-47 leans Republican per Cook Political Report. These races will signal whether Democrats can defend suburban seats or face losses in traditionally competitive regions.

Senate Races: Georgia and Florida

Georgia's Senate race leans Democratic per Cook Political Report, while Florida's Senate race rates as likely Republican according to Sabato's Crystal Ball. Georgia remains the more competitive of the two and will be critical for understanding Senate map dynamics. Watch for any shifts in either race's fundamentals.

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