Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Bell ✓ | 19,472 | 47.3% | |
| West Caudle | 6,404 | 15.6% | |
| Harry Morley | 4,672 | 11.4% | |
| Marcus Pearson | 4,070 | 9.9% | |
| Mir Yarfitz | 3,952 | 9.6% | |
| Ralph Scott Jr. | 2,591 | 6.3% |
Republican Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Harrigan ✓ | 46,270 | 87.7% | |
| Matt Sin | 6,509 | 12.3% |
Full calendar and every race: North Carolina primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
Share
Race page
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners (R) | 2026-03-12 | 400 LV | ±5.00 | Ashley Bell 37.00% | Pat Harrigan 52.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 NC-10 House race?
Pat Harrigan leads Ashley Bell 52% to 37% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+15.0 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 NC-10 House race competitive?
No — the expert consensus rates it Safe R for Republicans.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 NC-10 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Ragnar Research Partners (R) (completed March 12, 2026), found Ashley Bell (D) at 37% and Pat Harrigan (R) at 52%.
When is the 2026 NC-10 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Replaced Patrick McHenry who retired
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.
Get the daily email and the spending series
We store the address and the time you agree. No email is sent yet.