Primary
Primary election: Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Seat | 2026-05-06 | 576 V | ±4.10 | Oliver Larkin 43.00% | George Moraitis 34.00% |
| Beacon Insights | 2026-05-02 | 461 RV | Jared Moskowitz 40.00% | George Moraitis 39.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 FL-23 House race?
Oliver Larkin leads George Moraitis 41.5% to 36.5% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+5.0 margin based on 2 polls from the last 90 days.
Is the 2026 FL-23 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean D: Democrats are favored, but the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 FL-23 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Middle Seat (completed May 6, 2026), found Oliver Larkin (D) at 43% and George Moraitis (R) at 34%.
When is the 2026 FL-23 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.