Hawaii Governor Race

2026 Election
Back to Governor Races

Primary

Democratic Primary

Held August 8, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Josh Green ✓ 183,872 88.5%
Lauren Kapoliahi’iaka Shim 11,156 5.4%
George (Teva) Lucas-Tadeo 8,094 3.9%
Duke Bourgoin — —

Republican Primary

Held August 8, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Gary Cordery ✓ 36,308 75.9%
Ken Fujiyama 11,554 24.1%

Full calendar and every race: Hawaii primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
Josh Green
Party
Democrat
Open Seat
No
Current Rating
Safe D expert avg

Race Ratings

Toss-up = under 3 pts · Lean = 3–6 · Likely = 6–10 · Safe = 10+ (our poll average). "D+12.6" = Democrat ahead by 12.6 points. Tilt = a slight edge, used for expert averages and some House ratings.

Cook Political Report

Solid D

Inside Elections

Solid Democrat

Candidates

Josh Green

Josh Green Nominee Incumbent

Democrat
Gary Cordery

Gary Cordery Nominee

Republican

LV = likely voters · RV = registered voters · ± = margin of error · R-sponsored / D-sponsored / I-sponsored = paid for by a Republican, Democratic, or Independent group · "missed 2024 by X pts" = that firm's average miss in 2024

Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →

No polls in the last 90 days.

Questions About This Race

Is the 2026 Hawaii governor's race competitive?

No — the expert consensus rates it Safe D for Democrats.

When is the 2026 Hawaii governor's race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

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