Analysis
The daily briefing is the editorial surface. The newest edition is below; deeper cuts from earlier briefings follow.
Newest edition
Today's Source — Monday, September 28, 2026
Two fresh Texas surveys from Big Data Poll anchor today's briefing, showing both the state's governor and Senate races within single digits with three weeks of early data now in hand. Beyond Texas, PollingSource has added a large batch of archival House Majority PAC and internal-caliber surveys spanning House races in a dozen states, filling in the competitive map even though the underlying fieldwork mostly predat...
Read the full briefingRecent stories
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Governor's Races to Watch
September 28, 2026
Governor's Races to Watch No debates or filing deadlines are on the calendar for the coming week, but several gubernatorial contests remain close enough to merit attention as new polling arrives. The Arizona g
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Serbian Refinery Sanctions: House Republicans Press Trump Administration
September 28, 2026
GOP Reps urge Trump to reimpose sanctions on Russian-owned Serbian refinery (The Hill)Two House Republicans are urging the Trump administration to reimpose sanctions on a Rus
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Florida House Money Race: A Crowded Republican Field Spends Unevenly
September 28, 2026
Florida House Money Race: A Crowded Republican Field Spends Unevenly Several Florida House contests show wide gaps between fundraising and cash retention. Among candidates in this data, Randy Fine, a Republican, has b...
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Ohio: Gas Tax Proposal Emerges in Governor's Race
September 28, 2026
Ohio: Gas Tax Proposal Emerges in Governor's Race Both candidates in Ohio's governor's race have proposed suspending the state gas tax ahead of Election Day. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is working with state legislator...
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House Map: Archive Expansion Across Battleground Districts
September 28, 2026
House Map: Archive Expansion Across Battleground Districts PollingSource added a wide set of archival House polling today, conducted between February and late August but entered into the database only now. In Pennsylv...
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Iowa Senate: Turek Leads Hinson in New Survey
September 28, 2026
Iowa Senate: Turek Leads Hinson in New Survey An InsiderAdvantage poll completed September 23 among 1,200 likely voters shows Democrat Turek leading Republican Hinson 47% to 46% in the Iowa Senate race. The one-point...
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Texas: Governor and Senate Both Inside Single Digits
September 28, 2026
Texas: Governor and Senate Both Inside Single Digits A Big Data Poll survey completed September 26 among 698 likely voters shows Republican Greg Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 44% in the Texas go
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Governor's Races to Watch
September 26, 2026
Governor's Races to Watch No debates or filing deadlines are on the calendar in the next seven days, but three governor's races currently rated Toss-up warrant close attention as polling continues to develop:
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Florida's Boca Raton-Area House Race: Law Enforcement Weighs In
September 26, 2026
Scott Singer nabs endorsement from National Association of Police Organizations (Florida Politics)Republican congressional candid
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Michigan House Money Race: McDonald Rivet Banks the Most Cash
September 26, 2026
Michigan House Money Race: McDonald Rivet Banks the Most Cash Among Michigan House candidates in FEC filings, Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet holds the largest reserve, reporting $4.25 million cash on hand against $5....
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Florida Governor: Forecasters and Markets Disagree
September 26, 2026
Florida Governor: Forecasters and Markets Disagree Decision Desk has labeled the Florida governor's race a toss-up, but prediction market traders on Kalshi give Republican Byron Donalds a 77% probability o
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Georgia: Governor's Race Tight, Senate Race Diverges by Pollster
September 26, 2026
Georgia: Governor's Race Tight, Senate Race Diverges by Pollster In the Georgia governor's race, an InsiderAdvantage poll completed September 23 shows Republican Rick Jackson leading Democrat Keisha Lance
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Michigan: Governor and Senate Races Split by Pollster
September 26, 2026
Michigan: Governor and Senate Races Split by Pollster Two surveys of the Michigan governor's race completed within days of each other reach different conclusions. A New York Times/Siena University poll com
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Missouri Redistricting: Supreme Court Rejects GOP Map for a Second Time
September 26, 2026
Missouri Redistricting: Supreme Court Rejects GOP Map for a Second Time The Supreme Court blocked Missouri Republicans from using their preferred 7-1 congressional map for the November election, ruling the state must...
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Governors' Races Worth Tracking
September 25, 2026
Governors' Races Worth Tracking No debates or filing deadlines are on the calendar for the coming week, but three contests remain in true toss-up territory and merit close attention as new polling arrives. The
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DCCC Targets Florida Battlegrounds
September 25, 2026
National Democrats to stump in Florida with House candidates in battleground seats (Florida Politics)The Democratic Congressio
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New Jersey House Fundraising: A Crowded Field of Democratic War Chests
September 25, 2026
New Jersey House Fundraising: A Crowded Field of Democratic War Chests Money in New Jersey's House delegation is concentrated among Democratic incumbents with years of fundraising infrastructure. Josh Gottheimer, a De...
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Kansas: Both Statewide Races Inside Single Digits
September 25, 2026
Kansas: Both Statewide Races Inside Single Digits A Wedgewood Polls survey completed September 24 shows the Kansas Senate race at 50% for Democrat Adam Hamilton to 48% for Republican Roger Marshall, the incum