Exactly six states hold elections today. Maryland, Oklahoma, and Utah conduct primary elections, while Colorado, Illinois, and Mississippi hold primary elections across federal and state offices. The day will finalize general election matchups in competitive House districts and determine Senate nominees in two states rated safe or solid Democratic.
Maryland: Incumbents Fend Off Challengers in House Primaries
Maryland voters decided contested House primaries today following high-profile races earlier this week. April McClain Delaney (D MD-06) defeated her predecessor David Trone in a June primary matchup, and incumbent Kweisi Mfume (D MD-07) won his primary against four challengers including Mark Conway. Adrian Boafo (D MD-05) won a 22-candidate primary to replace retiring incumbent Steny Hoyer, prevailing over well-funded contenders Rushern Baker III, Quincy Bareebe, and Harry Dunn.
Fundraising in Maryland House races reflected significant resource concentration. April McClain Delaney raised 8.5 million with 426k cash on hand, while her predecessor David Trone brought separate resources to the contest. Jamie Raskin (D MD-HOU) raised 6.6 million with 7.3 million cash on hand, substantially outpacing other candidates. Quincy Bareebe (D MD-HOU) raised 5.9 million with 776k cash on hand, while Andrew Harris (R MD-HOU) led Republican fundraising with 2.1 million raised and 1.7 million cash on hand. The Democratic fundraising advantage across the state reflects both incumbency protection and the state's structural Democratic lean.
Maryland's primary results show incumbent resilience in a state where Democratic establishment candidates dominated contested races. All three incumbent House members who faced primary challenges won their nominations, and Adrian Boafo's victory over multiple well-funded challengers in Maryland's 5th District indicates Democratic primary voters selected the establishment-preferred candidate in an open seat race. General election matchups now feature predominantly Democratic nominees in a state where Republicans face resource disadvantages across House races.
Oklahoma: Hern Wins Senate Primary; Governor Heads to Runoff
Kevin Hern (R OK-SEN) won the Republican primary for Oklahoma's Senate seat after Markwayne Mullin left the Senate to join President Trump's Cabinet as Homeland Security Secretary. Hern raised 9.3 million with 6.8 million cash on hand, substantially outpacing Markwayne Mullin's concurrent fundraising of 3.2 million and 2.4 million cash on hand in a separate race. Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the Oklahoma Senate seat Solid R or Safe R, indicating Republican structural control regardless of November matchups.
Oklahoma's gubernatorial race advanced to a runoff between Gentner Drummond and Trump-backed candidate Mike Mazzei, with neither candidate securing 50 percent in the initial primary. Jackson Lahmeyer, founder of Pastors for Trump, withdrew from the Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District runoff after President Trump withdrew his endorsement following a texting scandal. Jon Echols (R OK-AG) won the Republican primary for Attorney General, defeating Jeff Starling in a race created when Gentner Drummond chose to run for governor instead of seeking reelection.
Oklahoma Republicans face resource concentration in Senate races with Hern's substantial fundraising advantage and consistent Republican structural ratings indicating secure Republican control of the Senate seat. House fundraising shows Republican concentration with Tom Cole (R OK-HOU) raising 3.6 million and Stephanie Bice (R OK-HOU) raising 1.7 million, while Democratic House candidates report minimal fundraising. The state's Republican lean across federal offices limits competitive dynamics in general election positioning.
Colorado: House Competitiveness Amid Senate Safety
Colorado's 8th District House race presents the state's most competitive matchup with divergent ratings and notable fundraising gaps. Timothy Evans (R CO-08) raised 4.9 million with 3.4 million cash on hand, substantially outpacing Democrat Manny Rutinel's 4.1 million raised and 909k cash on hand. Cook Political Report rates the district Lean R while Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections rate it Leans R and Tilt R respectively, indicating Republican structural advantage in a suburban district. Eileen Laubacher (D CO-HOU) leads statewide House fundraising with 10.0 million raised and 3.3 million cash on hand, though her district remains unspecified in available data.
Senator John Hickenlooper (D CO-SEN) faces a general election in a seat rated Solid D by Cook Political Report and Safe D by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections. Hickenlooper raised 7.7 million with 2.96 million cash on hand, establishing resource advantage in a seat where no recent polling is available but consensus ratings suggest structural Democratic advantage. Colorado House incumbents including Jason Crow (D CO-HOU) and Joseph Neguse (D CO-HOU) report substantial cash reserves at 2.5 million and 3.0 million respectively, indicating resource advantages in their districts.
Colorado Democrats expressed concern about potential primary challenges from the insurgent left following victories by Democratic Socialists of America-backed candidates in New York. The Democratic Socialists of America
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Colorado (7:00 PM MT) · Illinois (7:00 PM CT) · Maryland (8:00 PM ET) · Mississippi (7:00 PM CT) · Oklahoma (7:00 PM CT) · Utah (8:00 PM MT)Polls
Generic Ballot: Democratic Lead Persists Amid Measurement Variance
Recent generic ballot polls show Democrats maintaining a modest advantage heading into 2026 midterm contests, though significant methodological differences produce a wide spread in results. Across nine surveys conducted between June 17 and June 28, Democrats average 47 percent support compared to 42 percent for Republicans. The range, however, spans from a 5-point Democratic lead (Morning Consult, Big Data Poll) to a 9-point advantage (Echelon Insights), with one outlier—Reuters/Ipsos—showing Democrats at 41 percent and Republicans at 36 percent, suggesting possible differences in likely voter modeling or sampling composition.
Morning Consult's larger sample (29,540 respondents ending June 21) and its subsequent smaller wave (2,202 respondents ending June 28) both recorded identical 46-42 splits, providing methodological consistency within that pollster. The clustering of most results between 45-50 percent for Democrats indicates baseline support remains relatively stable, though the Republican range (36-45 percent) reflects more volatile measurement across firms.
Ohio Senate: Brown Leads Husted
Sherrod Brown (D OH-SEN) holds a 3-point advantage over Bernie Moreno's (R OH-SEN) successor in a Fabrizio/Anzalone survey, with the Democrat at 48 percent and the Republican at 45 percent (sample: 800). This represents a single data point in a race expected to remain highly competitive through 2026.
Follow the Money
New York House Races: Democratic Cash Concentration vs. Republican Positioning
The FEC data reflects fragmentation across multiple Democratic candidates in what appear to be overlapping New York House districts. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D NY-14) dominates with 31.1 million in total receipts and 15.9 million cash on hand, while four other Democratic candidates—Hakeem Jeffries (D NY-13), Peter Chatzky (D NY-03), and Daniel Goldman (D NY-10)—collectively raised 33.5 million but retain only 7.3 million combined cash on hand. Chatzky specifically spent nearly all receipts (11.7 million disbursed against 11.7 million raised), leaving 789 dollars cash on hand.
On the Republican side, Michael Lawler (R NY-17) and Anthony Constantino (R NY-22) each raised approximately 7.4 million, with Lawler holding 4.3 million and Constantino 3.1 million cash on hand. The Republican candidates show more efficient spending ratios relative to receipts. Elise Stefanik (R NY-21) reported zero cash on hand despite 4.9 million in total receipts and 2.3 million in disbursements, indicating complete fund deployment.
Ocasio-Cortez's cash advantage is substantial but concentrated in a
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What to Watch
June 30, 2026 Primary and Runoff Elections
Six states hold primaries or runoffs on June 30, 2026, with multiple competitive races to monitor. Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Maryland advance Senate and House primaries, while Mississippi holds runoffs across Senate, House, and gubernatorial races. Utah and Maryland primaries will feature gubernatorial contests. These elections will shape general election matchups heading into the final campaign stretch.
House Races Drawing Close Attention
Arizona's 1st and 6th Districts are rated tossups by Cook Political Report, indicating unpredictable outcomes in both seats. California's 13th and 22nd Districts also carry tossup ratings, while CA-45 and CA-47 lean Republican according to Inside Elections and Cook Political Report respectively. Colorado's 8th District leans Republican. Watch candidate recruitment, fundraising reports, and early polling in these districts for signals about national House control.
Senate Races in Flux
Georgia's Senate race leans Democratic per Cook Political Report, while Florida's Senate is rated likely Republican by Sabato's Crystal Ball. Both seats remain focal points for understanding the upper chamber's composition. Monitor candidate announcement timing and primary results that could affect general election dynamics.
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