California's 40th Congressional District will feature an all-Republican general election after incumbents Ken Calvert (R CA-40) and Young Kim (R CA-40) both advanced from the June 2 primary with 35 percent and 21 percent of the vote, respectively. The matchup guarantees GOP retention of the seat regardless of November's outcome, eliminating any Democratic path to victory in a district that underwent redistricting.
California House: Valadao Faces Competitive General Election
Republican incumbent David Valadao (R CA-22) and Democrat Randy Villegas (D CA-22) advanced to the general election for California's 22nd District following the June 2 primary. Democrat Jasmeet Bains (D CA-22) finished third. The race takes place under newly drawn district lines resulting from redistricting that altered the seat's configuration from 2024, creating a competitive general election matchup.
Iowa Gubernatorial Race: Sand Emerges as Democratic Option
Democrat Rob Sand (D IA-GOV), Republican Zach Lahn (R IA-GOV), and Libertarian Nicholas Gluba (L IA-GOV) are set to compete for Iowa's governorship on November 3. Democrats view Sand as an unusually competitive candidate despite Iowa's two-decade trend of electing Republican governors, though no recent polling data on the general election matchup is available.
South Carolina House Runoff: Honeycutt and Smith Advance
Jenny Honeycutt (R SC-01) and Mark Smith (R SC-01) advanced to a June 23 runoff in the Republican primary for South Carolina's 1st Congressional District following the June 9 vote. The two candidates emerged from a five-candidate field that included top fundraisers Jay Byars (R SC-01), Sam McCown (R SC-01), and Alex Pelbath (R SC-01).
Washington D.C.: Ranked-Choice Voting Implementation Begins
Washington, D.C. will conduct its first-ever ranked-choice voting election on June 16, allowing voters to rank candidates by preference across races including mayor, city council, and U.S. House delegate positions. The shift enables candidates to win through majority support rather than plurality, altering how D.C. voters make electoral decisions in a significant methodological departure from traditional voting systems.
Watch for D.C.'s ranked-choice election results on June 16 and any subsequent developments in Colorado's Republican gubernatorial primary ahead of the June 30 vote.
Polls
Generic Ballot: Democratic Lead Persists
Generic ballot polling from the past month shows consistent Democratic advantages heading into the 2026 midterms. Across ten surveys, Democrats averaged 46.4 percent support compared to Republicans' 42.1 percent. The range varied considerably—Emerson showed Democrats at 50 percent versus Republicans at 40 percent, while Reuters/Ipsos recorded a tighter 41-37 split. Forbes/HarrisX produced the narrowest margin at 46-45. The larger-sample Reuters/Ipsos (n=4,531) and Financial Times (n=1,537) surveys both aligned near the overall Democratic average, suggesting the four-point advantage reflects genuine preference rather than statistical noise.
Ohio Senate: Brown Holds Substantial Lead
A FOX News survey of the Ohio Senate race shows Democrat Sherrod Brown (D OH-SEN) leading Republican Jon Husted (R OH-SEN) 53-45 percent. The eight-point margin represents significant breathing room in a state Republicans flipped in recent presidential cycles. Sample size of 1,105 respondents provides reasonable confidence in the result, though only one poll limits ability to assess momentum or consolidation among undecided voters.
Follow the Money
Michigan House Races: Cash Reserves and Spending Trajectories
Kristen McDonald Rivet (D MI-##) holds the largest cash reserve among the candidates listed at 3.4 million, despite raising less total money than Thomas Barrett (R MI-##), who has 2.8 million on hand. Rashida Tlaib (D MI-##) maintains an outsized 4.6 million cash position relative to her 2.3 million in total receipts, indicating she began the cycle with substantial reserves or received late contributions not yet fully deployed.
Lisa McClain (R MI-##) presents a contrasting financial profile: she raised 4.3 million but has spent 3.6 million, leaving only 1.3 million cash on hand heading into the final stretch. This aggressive spending pattern suggests either heavy investment in competitive positioning or resource constraints limiting remaining advertising capacity.
Among the remaining candidates, William Huizenga (R MI-##) holds 1.9 million, while Bridget Brink (D MI-##), Hillary Scholten (D MI-##), and Matthew Maasdam (D MI-##) each maintain reserves between 900,000 and 1.3 million. Haley Stevens (D MI-##) shows zero cash on hand despite 1.6 million in total receipts, indicating complete depletion of resources.
Headlines
- Two Republican incumbents drawn into the same congressional district to face off in general election for California's 40th (Ballotpedia News)
Republican incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim advanced to the November general election for California's 40th Congr... - Incumbent David Valadao (R) and Randy Villegas (D) advanced from the top-two primary for California's 22nd Congressional District on June 2, 2026 (Ballotpedia News)
Republican incumbent David Valadao and Democrat Randy Villegas advanced to the general election for California's 22nd... - Campaign behind Montana ballot initiative to add nonpartisan judicial elections to the state constitution submits signatures for November (Ballotpedia News)
A campaign group in Montana has submitted signatures for a November ballot initiative that would enshrine nonpartisan...
What to Watch
Arizona House Races: Twin Tossups in Suburban Districts
AZ-01 and AZ-06 are both rated tossups by Cook Political Report, making Arizona's central corridor a key battleground. Both districts have shifted demographically in recent cycles, creating vulnerability for incumbents in each party. Monitor turnout patterns in Maricopa County suburbs and any late-breaking candidate controversies that could sway independent voters.
California's Orange County and Central Valley Contests
CA-13 and CA-22 represent tossup territory in regions Democrats have traditionally held. CA-45 and CA-47, rated lean Republican by Inside Elections and Cook Political Report respectively, indicate Republican gains in coastal suburban areas. Track Democratic spending and mobilization efforts in these districts—high investment could signal confidence or defensive positioning.
Senate Races Shaping Chamber Control
Florida's Senate race rates likely Republican according to Sabato's Crystal Ball, suggesting minimal competitive movement there. Conversely, Georgia's Senate race leans Democratic but remains fluid. Watch for any shifts in these ratings, as movement in either state could reshape overall Senate dynamics heading into the final campaign period.
How was today's briefing?
Get this briefing in your inbox every morning
Free. No password required. Unsubscribe anytime.