Democrats expanded their national generic ballot advantage to 8 points in a new Big Data Poll survey of 3,003 likely voters, showing 48 percent support versus 40 percent for Republicans. The result represents Democrats' largest recorded lead in recent polling and arrives as state-level races reveal mixed fortunes for Trump-endorsed candidates, including high-profile losses in Florida and North Carolina.
Florida State House District 87: Gregory Defeats Maples
Emily Gregory (D FL-87), a small business owner, defeated Trump-backed Jon Maples (R FL-87) in a special election for the Palm Beach County seat representing Florida's 87th District, home to Mar-a-Lago. The result flipped the traditionally competitive district to Democratic control, marking a setback for Republicans in a region where Trump maintains residence.
North Carolina State Senate District 26: Page Defeats Berger by 23 Votes
Sam Page (R NC-SEN), Rockingham County Sheriff, defeated state Senate leader Phil Berger (R NC-SEN) by 23 votes in a Republican primary recount. Berger conceded the race after the hand recount certified Page's victory, representing an unexpected loss for the incumbent leadership figure in his own district.
Supreme Court Arguments on Mississippi Absentee Ballot Procedures
The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Watson v. Republican National Committee regarding the constitutionality of Mississippi's absentee ballot return law. The decision will determine whether state voting procedures comply with federal election standards and could establish precedent affecting ballot access rules nationwide.
Monitor: DHS funding negotiations in the Senate; certification timeline for the North Carolina state Senate recount; Supreme Court decision timeline on Mississippi absentee voting procedures.
Polls
| National Generic Big Data Poll (n=3003 LV) | Democrats 48.00% · Republicans 40.00% |
Follow the Money
Nebraska Senate: Ricketts Maintains Fundraising Edge Over Independent Osborn
Pete Ricketts (R NE-SEN) holds a modest fundraising advantage in the race rated Lean Republican. Ricketts has raised 4.87 million dollars with 1.07 million remaining in cash on hand, while spending 4.28 million dollars through disbursements. Dan Osborn (I NE-SEN), running as an independent, has raised 3.86 million dollars—roughly 21 percent less than Ricketts—but maintains a stronger cash position with 1.14 million dollars available.
The cash-on-hand gap is negligible, suggesting both candidates retain sufficient resources for the final campaign phase. Osborn's lower total disbursements (2.78 million versus Ricketts' 4.28 million) indicate more conservative spending through the reporting period, potentially preserving resources for late advertising. Mike Marvin (O NE-SEN) and Benjamin Sasse (R NE-SEN) are not competitive factors financially, with combined receipts under 15,000 dollars.
Headlines
- Democrats flip Florida state House district that includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago (The Hill)
Democrats secured a significant victory by flipping a Florida state House seat in Palm Beach County, home to Trump's ... - Trump-endorsed North Carolina state Senate leader loses by 23 votes (Politico)
Phil Berger, the North Carolina state Senate leader endorsed by Trump, lost his reelection bid to Rockingham County S... - Live results: Florida holds state House special election in Mar-a-Lago district (The Hill)
Democrats are competing to flip a Florida state House seat representing the Mar-a-Lago district in a special election...
What to Watch
House Tossups in Arizona and California
Arizona's 1st District and Arizona's 6th District remain rated as tossups by Cook Political Report, with both seats representing potential swing areas in a competitive House map. California's 13th District and California's 22nd District carry the same tossup designation, making the state's Central Valley and coastal regions critical battlegrounds for chamber control. Monitor polling movement in these four races closely, as shifts here often signal broader regional momentum.
Senate Races: Georgia and Florida
Georgia's Senate race is rated Lean D by Cook Political Report, indicating Democratic vulnerability in a state that has swung unpredictably in recent cycles. Florida's Senate race carries a Likely R rating from Sabato's Crystal Ball, suggesting Republican structural advantages in the state. Watch fundraising reports and internal polling releases from both camps for signs of movement.
Republican-Leaning House Seats
California's 45th District (Lean R, Inside Elections), California's 47th District (Lean R, Cook Political Report), and Colorado's 8th District (Lean R, Cook Political Report) represent Republican-held seats with modest vulnerability. Iowa's 1st District is rated Likely R, indicating stronger Republican positioning there.
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